THIS FORECAST IS DESIGNED TO SUPPORT MONTHLY-TO-SEASONAL PLANNING ACROSS VARIOUS SECTORS, INCLUDING AGRICULTURE, WATER, ENERGY, HEALTH, AND DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT, ALL OF WHICH ARE INFLUENCED BY SEASONAL RAINFALL VARIATIONS.
GENERAL SITUATION
The current neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to transition to a weak La Niña phase during the 2024/2025 rainfall season. This weak La Niña phenomenon, characterized by below-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, will influence Zambia’s rainfall patterns. Typically, this condition results in normal rainfall over Zambia. Consequently, the 2024/2025 rainfall season is likely to exhibit the following characteristics:
- ➤ Normal rainfall over most parts of Zambia, with episodes of heavy rainfall and flooding in flood-prone areas. Normal to below-normal rainfall is likely over the northeastern parts of the country.
- ➤The onset of rains is likely in October over areas in Western province and the northern parts of Luapula and Northwestern provinces, while most other regions will likely see the onset by end of November.
- ➤ A delayed onset of rains is likely in the extreme northeastern parts of the country, including Luangwa, Chirundu, Gwembe, and Sinazongwe districts, by mid-December.
- ➤The cessation of rains is likely in March 2025 for the southern half of the country and by the end of April for parts of Eastern Province, as well as the northern parts of Luapula and Northern provinces.
DETAILED FORECAST FOR THE 2024/2025 RAIN SEASON
October, November, December (OND) Rainfall Forecast:
Normal to above-normal rainfall is likely in Northwestern, Western, Southern, Lusaka, Central, and Copperbelt provinces, as well as the southern districts of Eastern, Muchinga, Northern, and Luapula provinces.
Normal to below-normal rainfall is likely in Chama, Mafinga, Isoka, Nakonde, Chinsali, Mungwi, Senga Hill, Mbala, Mpulungu, Nsama, Kaputa, Chiengi, Nchelenge, and Mporokoso districts (see Figure 1).
November, December, January
(NDJ) Rainfall Forecast:
Normal to below-normal rainfall is
likely in Chasefu, Chama, Mafinga,
Isoka, Nakonde, Chinsali, and
Shiwangandu, Mungwi, and Senga
Hill districts.
Normal to above-normal rainfall is
likely over the rest of the country
(see Figure 2).
December, January, February
(DJF) Rainfall Forecast:
Normal to above-normal rainfall
is likely over most parts of the
country, with episodes of flash
floods and flooding in flood-prone
areas.
Normal to below-normal rainfall
is likely in the northern districts
of Eastern, Muchinga, Northern,
and Luapula provinces (see
Figure 3).
January, February, March (JFM)
Rainfall Forecast:
Normal to above-normal rainfall
is likely the entire country (see figure 4)
LIKELY START OF THE 2024/2025 SEASON
The onset of the rainy season is
likely in October for some parts of
Western Province, the northern
regions of Luapula, and
Northwestern provinces.
In contrast, most parts of Zambia
will likely experience the onset of
rains in November. However, a
delayed onset is likely in the
extreme northeastern parts of the
country, including Luangwa,
Chirundu, Gwembe, and
Sinazongwe, where the onset of
the rains may not arrive until mid-December.
LIKELY END OF THE 2024/2025 SEASON
Rainfall cessation for the
2024/2025 season is likely in
March 2025, particularly in the
southern half of the country.
However, rains are likely to
continue until late April in the
northern parts of Luapula and
Northern provinces.
Some areas in Eastern Province
are likely to experience rain
cessation by mid-April.
TAKE NOTE:
ABOVE NORMAL: Rainfall greater than 125% of the average for the period 1981 to 2020
(OND) & 1981 to 2020 (JFM)
NORMAL: Rainfall between 75% and 125% of the average for the period 1981 to
2020 (OND) & 1981 to 2020 (JFM)
BELOW NORMAL: Rainfall less than 75% of the average for the period 1981 to 2020
(OND) & 1981 to 2020 (JFM)
PLEASE NOTE:
This seasonal forecast provides a general overview based on three-month averages. It is helpful for long term planning but may not accurately reflect daily or weekly rainfall patterns. Heavy rainfall periods can lead to flash floods while dry spells can lead to water deficits. It is necessary to regularly check our Daily, Weekly, and 10-day Agrometeorological Bulletins for the most up-to-date information. We will
review this forecast monthly and provide updates. If you have any questions or need further assistance, please contact the Director of Meteorology at the Ministry of Green Economy and Environment.
HISTORICAL AVERAGE/ NORMAL RAINFALL (1981 – 2020)
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