ZMD 2025/2026 SEASON RAINFALL FORECAST

October, November, December (OND) Rainfall Forecast:
Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected across most areas in Northwestern, Western, Southern, and Lusaka Provinces. Similar conditions are likely in the western parts of Central Province, including Nyimba, Petauke, Sinda, and Katete districts, as well as in the far northern regions of Luapula and Northern Provinces.
In contrast, Copperbelt, Muchinga, and parts of Central, Eastern, Luapula, and Northern Provinces are forecast to get normal to below-normal rainfall (see Figure 1).

November, December, January
(NDJ) Rainfall Forecast:

Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected in Western, Southern, Lusaka, Luapula, and Northern Provinces. This pattern also extends to the western parts of Central Province, the northern areas of Muchinga Province, and Ikelenge District.

In contrast, normal to below-normal rainfall is likely across Copperbelt Province, much of Northwestern and Eastern Provinces, the southern parts of Muchinga Province, and the eastern areas of Central Province (see Figure 2).

December, January, February
(DJF) Rainfall Forecast:

Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected across the country, with an increased risk of flash floods and flooding in vulnerable areas (see Figure 3)

January, February, March (JFM)
Rainfall Forecast:

The northern half of the country is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. However, Western and Southern Provinces, as well as the western parts of Lusaka and Central Provinces, are expected to experience normal to below-normal rainfall (see Figure 4).

Rainfall is expected to begin in October across parts of Western, Northwestern, Copperbelt, Luapula, and Northern Provinces.

However, most areas over Zambia will see onset in November.

Moreover, a delayed start is likely in several districts, such as Sinazongwe, Siavonga, Chirundu, Gwembe, Rufunsa, Luangwa, Chisamba, Kabwe, Luano, Chitambo, Lavushimanda, Mpika, Chasefu, Chama, Isoka, Chinsali, Mafinga, and Nakonde, where rains are expected in December 2025 (see Figure 5).

Rainfall is expected to cease around mid-March in southern Zambia, while northern regions are likely to continue receiving rain until mid-April (see Figure 6).